Worlds Preview: Marathon

Between now and the beginning of the Worlds, I’ll be previewing a different group of events. Yesterday I did the multis, today I’m doing the marathons.

Men

Competition schedule:
Saturday, September 3, 8:00 PM ET — will be covered LIVE on Universal Sports TV

2009 medalists: Abel Kirui (KEN), Emmanuel Mutai (KEN), Tsegay Kebede (ETH)
The Americans: Nick Arciniaga (McMillan Elite), Mike Morgan (Hansons-Brooks), Sergio Reyes (ASICS Aggies), Jeff Eggleston, Mike Sayenko (Infinite Running)
TFN medal picks: Abel Kirui (KEN), Vincent Kipruto (KEN), Tsegaye Kebede (ETH)

2011 World List
2:04:40 Emmanuel Mutai KEN
2:05:27 Wilson Chebet KEN
2:05:33 Vincent Kipruto KEN
2:05:45 Martin Lel KEN
2:05:45 Patrick Makau KEN

Superfan World Rankings
Geoffrey Mutai KEN 266 (not entered)
Moses Mosop KEN 218 (not entered)
Emmanuel Mutai KEN 168 (not entered)
Benjamin Kiptoo KEN 108 (not entered)
Gebre Gebremariam ETH 100

Chance of USA gold: Virtually zero
Chance of USA medal(s): Virtually zero

The Worlds doesn’t tend to attract the very best in the marathon. This is for several reasons, almost all financial; without going into the details, the top guys will make less money winning this race than they would just showing up in Chicago or New York. So who you think will win depends very much on who shows up. Some athletes will say they want to run and then drop out, wanting to look like team players.

Anyway, picking a winner in an invitational affair like New York or Boston is challenging at best, and those races generally only have ten to twenty truly elite runners. Here there will be more. And, due to the inclusion of team competition, each nation can enter as many as five runners. So you’ve got five Kenyans, five Ethiopians, five Japanese, and a whole host of others. All with the world’s very best not showing up, making for a very level playing field.

That said, this can be great fun to watch. It will be the only event covered live on U.S. television. So get your skinny running buddies together, go down to the local watering hole, and tip the barkeep to get him to put their Direct TV on Universal Sports.

The Americans will not be on camera much if at all. These are our minor-leaguers here, taking advantage of a great opportunity. It would be a major accomplishment for any of them to make next year’s Olympic team.

Bottom line: Roll the bones.

Women

Competition schedule:
Friday, August 26, 8:00 PM ET

2009 medalists: Bai Xue (CHN), Yoshimi Ozaki (JPN), Aselefech Mergia (ETH)
The Americans: Katherine Newberry (New York AC), Alissa McKaig (ZAP Fitness), Colleen De Reuck (Team Elite), Tera Moody (Marathon Performance), Zoila Gomez (Team Strands)
TFN medal picks: Edna Kiplagat (KEN), Yoshimi Ozaki (JPN), Yukiko Akaba (JPN)

2011 World List
2:19:19 Mary Keitany KEN (not entered)
2:20:15 Liliya Shobukhova RUS
2:20:46 Edna Kiplagat KEN
2:22:34 Lydia Cheromei KEN
2:22:45 Aselefech Mergia ETH

Superfan World Rankings
Mary Keitany KEN 292
Liliya Shobukhova RUS 156
Caroline Cheptanui KEN 124
Edna Kiplagat KEN 124
Lydia Cheromei KEN 110

Chance of USA gold: Virtually zero
Chance of USA medal(s): Virtually zero

More of the best women’s runners tend to show up for the Worlds, partially because the appearance fees available to women at World Marathon Majors aren’t always as big as they are for the men. But also, it’s because Japanese women are often more competitive than their male counterparts, and the Worlds is a priority for Japan.

So we have entrants such as Edna Kiplagat, who won last fall’s New York City Marathon, and Japan’s Yoshimi Ozaki and Yukiko Akaba, who are fast racers under cool conditions and likely to cope well with the hot a steamy conditions which will prevail in Daegu. This is still a hard race to predict, even more so than most marathons, but the higher quality of the field means that it isn’t quite as wide-open as the men’s race.

The Americans are, as the men, mostly our second-teamers. Colleen De Reuck is now 47 years old and doesn’t even consider herself to be training like an elite-level distance runner these days. You know the type—there’s got to be one in your club—an ageless wonder who just races a lot and doesn’t train that seriously anymore but still whups you butt.

Bottom line: Hard to predict. If heat, humidity, and pacing end up making a difference, watch out for the Japanese runners.